Red Bull arrives at the United States Grand Prix at a positive moment, after victories in Malaysia and Singapore. With a more balanced RB22, Max Verstappen will face in Austin an important test to gauge the car’s evolution in light of the new Formula 1 regulations.
A simulation by the international portal GPblog estimates that the Dutch driver could register a qualifying lap around 1:35. In 2025, Verstappen secured pole position at the Circuit of the Americas with 1:32.510. Applying the average performance loss of the 2026 cars, the projected time would be 1:35.280, nearly three seconds slower.
A estimativa considera as voltas mais rápidas de classificação das etapas disputadas nas duas temporadas. A diferença média foi de 2,96%, mas variou bastante entre os circuitos: em Baku, ficou em cerca de 1,4%, enquanto Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps e Monza registraram perdas próximas de 4%. Para Austin, a projeção é apenas indicativa, com uma faixa entre 1min34s8 e 1min35s8.
The American circuit brings together characteristics that can complicate the teams’ work. The rapid direction changes in the first sector demand aerodynamic balance, while the fast corners of the final stretch require stability. The 2026 cars have less downforce, although they are lighter, which could help in the changes of direction.
Another important point will be energy management. On the straight between turns 11 and 12, using the battery can assist acceleration, but the available energy is limited. When electric power decreases, clipping occurs, reducing acceleration capability and potentially compromising lap time.
The recent evolution of Red Bull gives cause for optimism. After finishing second in Baku, Verstappen won in Malaysia and Singapore, demonstrating that the car has improved not only on the straights but also in the corners. In Malaysia, the team managed to maintain a strong pace in long stints. In Singapore, the Dutch driver claimed pole position and won both the sprint and the Grand Prix, even on a track that previously exposed RB22’s weaknesses.
